Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 152.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 152.5 (-114) after it opened @ 175.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Justin Fields’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.3% to 63.3%.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
136
Passing Yards
136
Passing Yards
