Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-131) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 16.9 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Cons
- The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
- David Montgomery has been a less important option in his offense’s run game this season (44.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (74.1%).
- David Montgomery has run for a lot fewer yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
- David Montgomery’s running effectiveness (3.89 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (23rd percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
