Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Vikings vs. Colts
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.6 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Dalvin Cook has been given 76.4% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dalvin Cook has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
- The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
