Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 260.5 (-110) after it opened @ 265.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Kirk Cousins has been among the leading QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 262.0 yards per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, yielding 7.19 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards