Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 93.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 93.5 (-110) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (111.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson has posted far fewer air yards this year (108.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
110
Receiving Yards