Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (+100/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 243.5 (-125) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Geno Smith has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 266.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.8 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (68.2%).
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, allowing 7.01 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards
272
Passing Yards
