Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Deebo Samuel’s talent in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, notching 10.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 7.67 rate last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Deebo Samuel has posted quite a few less air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel’s 46.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 59.3.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) to wide receivers this year (63.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards