Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Robert Woods has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.0% this year, which places him in the 78th percentile among WRs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (163.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- Robert Woods has notched significantly fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
