Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Keenan Allen from EV Insight

Keenan AllenReceiving Yards

Right now, Keenan Allen’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-115) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

Keenan Allen has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
Keenan Allen’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.1% to 64.9%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (64.5%).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 7.66 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards