Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 292.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 292.5 (-133) after it opened @ 283.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 39.2 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (273.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
311
Passing Yards