MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-117) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense as the quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, yielding 9.08 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- Chris Godwin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.6% to 71.3%.
- Chris Godwin’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 7.28 yards-per-target vs a 9.83 rate last year.
- Chris Godwin’s talent in generating extra yardage have diminished this year, averaging a measly 4.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
