Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 12.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has posted a lot more receiving yards per game (106.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.7 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
112
Receiving Yards
112
Receiving Yards
