Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Andy Dalton from EV Insight

Andy DaltonPassing Yards

Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 218.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 218.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-114).

Pros

The Saints are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Andy Dalton has thrown for substantially more yards per game (214.0) this year than he did last year (183.0).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 34.3 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 207.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (67.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
218
Passing Yards