Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Michael Pittman from EV Insight

Michael PittmanReceiving Yards

Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Cons

Michael Pittman has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Michael Pittman’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating just 7.55 yards-per-target compared to a 8.64 mark last year.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 131.0) to WRs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.83 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards