Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 301.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 301.5 (-130) after it opened @ 297.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Joe Burrow has been among the best quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 288.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have used play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards
320
Passing Yards
