Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this season (94.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.9%).
Cons
- Christian Kirk has posted quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 67.1%.
- The Detroit Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have used motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
