Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to garner 16.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- Jamaal Williams has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (61.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (51.2%).
- Jamaal Williams has run for a lot more yards per game (70.0) this season than he did last season (46.0).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
