Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jamaal Williams from EV Insight

Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to garner 16.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Jamaal Williams has been a more integral piece of his team’s rushing attack this season (61.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (51.2%).
Jamaal Williams has run for a lot more yards per game (70.0) this season than he did last season (46.0).

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards