Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.38 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
- Noah Fant’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 6.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.10 figure last season.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Noah Fant has been a much smaller part of his team’s passing game this year (12.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
- Noah Fant has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- Noah Fant has totaled many fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.3%) versus tight ends this year (67.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
