Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.38 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Noah Fant to earn 4.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Noah Fant’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 6.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.10 figure last season.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Noah Fant has been a much smaller part of his team’s passing game this year (12.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.5%).
Noah Fant has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
Noah Fant has totaled many fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (41.0).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.3%) versus tight ends this year (67.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards