Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.38 seconds per play.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 36.4% run rate.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
- Opposing squads have run for the 4th-least yards in football (just 100 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties rank as the best group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards
92
Rushing Yards
