WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (+100) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.38 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to garner 9.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.3%) to wideouts this year (71.3%).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- DK Metcalf has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a mere 7.38 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 18th percentile among wideouts
- DK Metcalf has been among the bottom WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
