Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 266.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (276.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate passers in football this year with a stellar 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 219.0 per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.20 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards