Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Mike Gesicki’s possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 70.6%.
- Mike Gesicki’s pass-game efficiency has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.76 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.84 figure last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.1 plays per game.
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (59.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.3%).
- Mike Gesicki has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 33.0) versus tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
