Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 5.8 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.22 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 90th percentile.
- George Kittle has been among the best TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.69 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle has put up quite a few less air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).
- George Kittle’s 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 51.1.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
