Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery from EV Insight

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-125) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 22.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (43.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
David Montgomery has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.11 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
92
Rushing Yards