Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 81.4% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 74.1%.
- The New York Jets pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
