Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-127) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will be rolling with backup QB Trevor Siemian in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to garner 7.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
- Darnell Mooney has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 27.8% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- Darnell Mooney’s receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.7% to 70.4%.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- The New York Jets defense has conceded the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 119.0) to wide receivers this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
