Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-133) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Kenyan Drake has rushed for substantially more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
- Kenyan Drake’s running effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 4.75 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.99 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (21.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Rushing Yards
27
Rushing Yards
