Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cameron BrateReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Cameron Brate’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
- Cameron Brate has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (62.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (41.6%).
- Cameron Brate has put up a monstrous 26.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- Cameron Brate’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.1% to 59.5%.
- Cameron Brate has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a lowly 5.19 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 9th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
