Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 23.5 (-120).

Pros

The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this season (70.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has accumulated far more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, notching a measly 8.08 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 rate last year.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 31.0) versus TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards