Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Parker HesseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Commanders vs. Falcons
Right now, Parker Hesse’s receiving yards prop is set at 6.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 6.5 (-140) after it opened @ 6.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Parker Hesse to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing attack this week (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
- Parker Hesse has been among the most efficient receivers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.47 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 80th percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
- Parker Hesse has been among the worst pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging just 11.0 yards per game while ranking in the 24th percentile among tight ends.
Projection
THE BLITZ
12
Receiving Yards
12
Receiving Yards
