Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to earn 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
- Courtland Sutton has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this season (24.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.4%).
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (70.9%) to WRs this year (70.9%).
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 57.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 11th percentile among wideouts
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
