Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to earn 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Courtland Sutton has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this season (24.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.4%).
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (70.9%) to WRs this year (70.9%).

Cons

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Courtland Sutton has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 57.6% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 11th percentile among wideouts
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards