Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jack StollReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, Jack Stoll’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 12.5 (-110) after it opened @ 11.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jack Stoll to be a more important option in his team’s passing offense this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.0% in games he has played).
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line has given their QB 2.90 seconds before the pass (best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 49.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Jack Stoll has been among the worst tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a mere 9.0 yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among TEs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
