Week 12 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 161.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 161.5 (-110) after it opened @ 158.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
Marcus Mariota has thrown for substantially more yards per game (168.0) this season than he did last season (1.0).
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 52.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 25.8 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
165
Passing Yards