Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 15.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (59.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.7% in games he has played).
Isiah Pacheco’s rushing effectiveness (5.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among RBs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 11th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 96 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards