Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accrue 8.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards