WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be starting backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 8th-most in football.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accrue 8.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.22 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- D.J. Moore has totaled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (69.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
