WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-127) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to notch 15.4 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most yards in the league (143 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game.
- Kenyan Drake has been among the bottom running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
