Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to accrue 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this week (72.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.0% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Colt McCoy in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
James Conner has been among the weakest running backs in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.60 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.
Opposing squads have run for the least yards in the league (just 81 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards