WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 170.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (283.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Cons
- The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards
207
Passing Yards
