Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 170.5 (-110) after it opened @ 195.5 (-114).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (283.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Cons

The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards