MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Qatar vs. Ecuador (11 a.m. ET Sunday)
After the longest break in 70 years between Finals, the highly controversial 2022 World Cup will kick off in Qatar Sunday. Qatar have already shown a willingness to do whatever it takes to show off their country on the world’s biggest stage. Sunday, the hosts will play an underrated South American squad as they face Ecuador.
Ecuador isn’t typically mentioned with the giants of South America, or even the upper middle squads like Uruguay, Colombia or Chile. But they earned their fourth appearance in the World Cup with their best goal differential and placement in qualifying in the country’s history. Ecuador comes in having not allowed a goal in six straight matches, and while I don’t expect them to have to park the bus against Qatar, it shows a willingness to cater to tournament-style football and focus on defense first. They will also be one of the few teams that would be somewhat acclimated to the climate in Qatar. Ecuador has players who play in the Premier League, Bundesliga and the Turkish Super Lig — Ecuador could easily outclass Qatar, a team with zero players who play outside their domestic league.
Despite this lack of experience in the world’s top leagues, Qatar went 4-1-1 in their six friendlies in the lead up to their opener, including only one goal allowed over their last four, winning all four matches. They also are the reigning Asian Cup champions from 2019 and finished third in the Arab Cup of 2021. Qatar is the smallest nation to ever host the World Cup and is going into it with a good sense of continuity, playing more friendlies than all the other nations going in, and a manager who has been with the national team for the past five years in Felix Sanchez. Qatar also has the obvious rest advantage, with many of the tournament’s players barely having a week off between club football and this tournament. No host nation has ever lost its opening match, and the Qataris will look to extend that streak to 2026 with a win or draw Sunday.
That said, I expect a defensive game from both sides, especially in the first half. Ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ecuador is the first team to ruin a host nation’s opener, and I have them winning in two of my four most likely scores. However, I still favor the under here more. Throughout the tournament, I’ll be providing my four most likely scores, and I typically bet 0.2x on each of these. If you don’t have exact scores available, the under 2 around -110 or under 2.25 -150 is the play here to me. If you don’t want to play to win and avoid a push, I’ve seen a couple places offer a “Both Halves Under 1.5 goals” priced around the same as the under 2. If you have a shop that offers a multitude of props, please check every prop/price available. For example, sometimes you can find a “Which Team to Score: None” prop that pays better than a 0-0 exact score.
Four most likely scores
- Ecuador, 1-0
- 0-0 draw
- 1-1 draw
- Ecuador, 2-0
Bets
(All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Under 2 goals -104 1u
- 0:0 exact score +650 .2u
- 0:1 Ecuador exact score +525 .2u
- 1:1 exact score +525 .2u
- 0:2 Ecuador +925 .2u
