Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-120) after it opened @ 75.5 (-115).

Pros

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his offense’s pass game this season (33.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled far more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.1% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 70.9%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards