Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.3% of his team’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to earn 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

The Panthers have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 56.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards