Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Onta Foreman from EV Insight

D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards

Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-145) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

The Panthers rank as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 43.4% run rate.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to earn 12.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be a more important option in his team’s running game this week (54.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.7% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers project as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 92 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards