Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Panthers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-145) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Panthers rank as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 43.4% run rate.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to earn 12.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to be a more important option in his team’s running game this week (54.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.7% in games he has played).
- The Baltimore Ravens linebackers project as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a giant 13-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.6 plays per game.
- Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 92 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
