Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-125).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to garner 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs.
- Chris Olave has put up a colossal 126.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among wideouts.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) to WRs this year (69.5%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Chris Olave has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 60.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 19th percentile among wide receivers
- Chris Olave has been among the bottom WRs in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, giving up 7.46 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
