Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Rams vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup quarterback Colt McCoy in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Zach Ertz has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.2%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-least in football.
- Zach Ertz has been among the least efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a measly 6.01 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
- Zach Ertz has been among the worst tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 21st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) to tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
