Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-142) after it opened @ 255.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chargers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 40.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
Justin Herbert has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 283.0 yards per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Justin Herbert has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging just 6.46 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 212.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.21 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards