Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-115) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).

Pros

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for quite a few more yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 8.25 yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards