Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
49ers vs. Chargers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-115) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has passed for quite a few more yards per game (246.0) this year than he did last year (207.0).
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 8.25 yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have used some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.17 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
