Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Josh Palmer from EV Insight

Josh PalmerReceiving Yards

Right now, Josh Palmer’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chargers are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to total 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Josh Palmer has put up substantially more receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (25.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards