Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerick McKinnonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jerick McKinnon’s rushing yards prop is set at 11.5 yards (-120/-110).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
- Jerick McKinnon has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this season (21.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).
- Jerick McKinnon has run for a lot more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 34.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has had the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 4.14 yards-per-carry.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
13
Rushing Yards
13
Rushing Yards
