Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for JuJu Smith-Schuster from EV Insight

JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards

Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (+100/-122).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-122) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has posted substantially more receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards