Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (+110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.7% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has accrued significantly more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).

Cons

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Diontae Johnson has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
Diontae Johnson’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 60.6%.
Diontae Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 5.82 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards