WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Saints
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (+110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
- Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.7% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued significantly more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Diontae Johnson has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (54.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).
- Diontae Johnson’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.4% to 60.6%.
- Diontae Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, notching just 5.82 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
